Parallel Multi-level Genetic Ensemble for Numerical Weather Prediction Enhancement
نویسندگان
چکیده
The need for reliable predictions in environmental modelling is well-known. Particularly, the predicted weather and meteorological information about the future atmospheric state is crucial and necessary for almost all other areas of environmental modelling. Additionally, right decisions to prevent damages and save lives could be taken depending on a reliable meteorological prediction process. Lack and uncertainty of input data and parameters constitute the main source of errors for most of these models. In recent years, evolutionary optimization methods have become popular to solve the input parameter problem of environmental models. We propose a new parallel meteorological prediction scheme that uses evolutionary optimization methods based on Multi-Chromosome Genetic Algorithm to enhance the quality of weather forecasts by focusing on the calibration of input parameters. This new scheme is parallelized and executed on a HPC environment in order to reduce the time needed to obtain the final prediction. The new approach is called Multi-Level Genetic Ensemble (M-Level G-Ensemble) and it has been tested using historical data of a wellknown weather catastrophe: Hurricane Katrina that occurred in 2005 in the Gulf of Mexico. Results obtained with our approach provide both significant improvements in weather prediction and a significant reduction in the execution time.
منابع مشابه
Genetic Ensemble (G-Ensemble) for Meteorological Prediction Enhancement
The need for reliable predictions in environmental modelling is long known. Particularly, the predicted weather and meteorological information about the future atmospheric state is crucial and necessary for almost all other areas of environmental modelling. Additionally, right decisions to prevent damages and save lives could be taken depending on a reliable meteorological prediction process. L...
متن کاملMulti-model multi-analysis ensemble weather forecasting on the grid for the South Eastern Mediterranean Region
Weather forecasting is based on the use of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models that are able to perform the necessary calculations that describe/predict the major atmospheric processes. One common problem in weather forecasting derives from the uncertainty related to the chaotic behaviour of the atmosphere. A solution to that problem is to perform in addition to “deterministic” forecasts,...
متن کاملMachine Learning Enhancement of Storm-Scale Ensemble Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts challenge meteorologists due to the wide variability of precipitation amounts over small areas and their dependence on conditions at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Ensembles of convection-allowing numerical weather prediction models offer a way to produce improved precipitation forecasts and estimates of the forecast uncertainty. Thesemo...
متن کاملBootstrapped Multi-Model Neural-Network Super-Ensembles for Wind Speed and Power Forecasting
The bootstrap resampling method is applied to an ensemble artificial neural network (ANN) approach (which combines machine learning with physical data obtained from a numerical weather prediction model) to provide a multi-ANN model super-ensemble for application to multi-stepahead forecasting of wind speed and of the associated power generated from a wind turbine. A statistical combination of t...
متن کاملWind Power Prediction with Machine Learning Ensembles
For a sustainable integration of wind power into the electricity grid, precise and robust predictions are required. With increasing installed capacity and changing energy markets, there is a growing demand for short-term predictions. Machine learning methods can be used as a purely data-driven, spatio-temporal prediction model that yields better results than traditional physical models based on...
متن کامل